So, you think traffic is getting
worse in Knox County? You are right. Now, for the big
question: How bad is it?
Would you believe nearly 13 million miles of
vehicular traffic a day in and around Knox County?
That's a lot of cars and trucks driving a lot of miles,
right?
The bad news is that 13 million figure is growing
annually by about 400,000 miles. So in 2003, the mileage
will be about 13.5 million plus an additional 400,000 or
nearly 14 million miles traveled daily in Knox County on
a typical day. And the mileage trend is up, not down,
for the future.
That mileage has been derived from studies by the
University of Tennessee and the Tennessee Department of
Transportation, two agencies that also think there's a
great deal of traffic in and around Knoxville.
Dr. Wayne T. Davis, professor and coordinator of the
Environmental Engineering Program in the Department of
Civil and Environmental Engineering at UT, consults for
both TDOT and the State Air Quality Division. He is also
chairman of the Knox County Air Pollution Control Board.
He has just completed a study on automobile emissions
for the next three decades in Tennessee's 95 counties.
And to do that, he and his staff and students looked at
total mileage of vehicle traffic as it zips through and
by Knoxville and other counties.
The study was made necessary so that counties can
conform to EPA emission regulations that are going to be
implemented over the next 10 years.
The two pollutants of primary interest from
automobiles are nitrogen oxide emissions and volatile
organic compounds. Both react photochemically to form
ozone.
He worked on this study primarily to understand where
emissions are headed in the future. Davis says the state
needed to know if emissions were going up or down.
"The good news is if you look at the growth rate of
vehicle miles traveled at the present time in all the
counties in Tennessee and you apply the emission
standards that are being promulgated and implemented
right now, what we see is a fairly substantial reduction
in nitrogen oxide emissions statewide over the next 30
years."
This means, he says, that auto emissions are
projected to drop in the future even though mileage is
increasing. That's because newer cars will have
increasingly more stringent emission standards, he says.
The down side of that is, however, is that Knox
County and several other neighboring counties are going
to find themselves not in line with the new regulations.
That's called non-attainment.
"Knox, Anderson, Jefferson, Blount and Sevier
counties are all on the list of counties that EPA
published which exceed the new 8-hour ozone ambient air
quality standard of 80 parts per billion. That means
that they will likely be designated non-attainment for
the new ozone standard," he says.
"However, EPA is projecting at the present time that
the official designation of counties as non-attainment
will likely occur in mid-to-late 2004, and it will be
based on the most recent (at that time) three years of
data. Since we are continuing to exceed the standard in
East Tennessee, it is likely that the final listing will
include these counties."
Davis says that assuming Knox and surrounding
counties are designated next year, the offending
counties would have about seven years after that to meet
EPA automobile emission standards.
"Knox County cannot have an increase in emissions
under non-attainment. We will have to show that our
(vehicle) emissions will be less than they are today,"
Davis says.
"If you have a project that will cause emissions to
increase, you would not be allowed to build the project
because it would not meet conformity."
That fact has immense implications for this area's
development, Davis says. Construction can be stopped in
its tracks if it adds to vehicle emissions in any way
under non-attainment, he says.
"The important thing is that the areas that become
non-attainment have to make sure their emissions are
being reduced in future years so that they don't have a
worsening problem due to transportation.
"I'm not telling you that bigger and wider
interstates relieve congestion problems. I'm telling you
that if you propose to build new projects you have to do
the analysis to determine whether or not those emissions
are going to be worse than if you didn't build it. A key
issue there is that in most areas you have to do that
calculation."
Some counties will have as long as 15 years to get
their emissions up to standard, he says. Others are
going to have only five years, which means those
counties will have a shorter turnaround because they are
not that far above the standard.
That standard, Davis says, is going to be a 40
percent reduction by 2010 in emissions of nitrogen oxide
from mobile sources.
"That is from highway vehicles, or on-road mobile
sources. In the long-run, we are looking at a 70-75
percent reduction by the year 2020," he says.
Non-attainment, Davis says, will place heavy scrutiny
on road building and on trying to relieve congestion.
And despite the fact that more vehicles are traveling
more miles in Knox and surrounding counties overall,
Davis says auto emissions are dropping. That is due in
large measure to federally mandated emission control
standards on cars.
And in the future, more controls will mean more
emission reduction. In fact, Davis says, substantial
reductions are on the way, even in the face of more
vehicle miles traveled.
"We got a lot more traffic, but the net result is we
are seeing reduction in emissions. Because of new low
emissions standards that kicked in in 2001, so now cars
have lower emissions than those prior to 2001."
In 2004, a new sulfur standard will require gasoline
manufactures to reduce the quantity of sulfur in
gasoline by a considerable amount. Even though there is
not much sulfur in gasoline now--it is about 200 parts
per million--what is there interferes with the catalytic
converter and causes it to emit more pollution.
In Tennessee automobiles contribute about 30 percent
of the total nitrogen oxide spewed into the environment.
About 30 percent comes from fossil fuel power plants.
Another 40 percent is from a variety of other sources,
mostly combustion-related, such as weed eaters, lawn
mowers, heating systems and industrial boilers.
"The strategies for most areas in the U.S. are to
reduce nitrogen oxide emissions. That is the reason for
the low sulfur fuel ... the lower vehicle emission
standards. Most of these (regulations) are hitting
reductions in nitrogen oxide. That nitrogen oxide
reduction will result in a lowering of the ozone
concentration," Davis says.
"So the good news is we are looking at substantial
reductions, some 50 percent in the next 10 years.
Probably 75 percent reduction in nitrogen oxide over the
next 15-20 years from automobiles."
Fred Brown can be reached at 342-6427 or
brownf@knews.com
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